Risks and challenges of the EU expansion
周大勇 (Zhou,Dayong)
I. Introduction
For several years now the European Union is discussing a possible enlargement, because several European countries have applied for membership in the EU. These are especially the former socialist countries in Eastern Europe, that have clearly turned towards the west since the collapse of the iron curtain. These countries are Bulgaria, the Baltic countries Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, Poland, Romania, the Slovak Republic, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Hungary.
In addition Turkey, Cyprus and Malta are trying for quite some time already to join the EU. These application are not to be accepted without any further deliberation because they do bring along some risks and the consequences are hard to distinguish therefore these countries are not very expected joining the European Union in the near future and will therefore not be included in the following evaluation.
II. Risks and challenges
If we wants to evaluate the risks and challenges of an upcoming enlargement of the EU, we should first take into account experiences gained during previous expansion which were to some extent comparable. Here the southern expansion from 1986 should be mentioned where two economically pathetic countries sought admission to the then European Community. The admission procedure of these two candidates, being Spain and Portugal, were lengthy and considered very problem bearing. Especially the amount of produce that would add to the already existing agricultural over-production of the Community was seen to be a problem since it would increase the load on the European budget.
But seen from a global economical perspective the joining of Spain and Portugal was overall positive for the EC and the two countries, although Spain struggled with a further rise of unemployment and disparities within the Community were further amplified.
The disparities within the Union will most certainly increase when it comes to an eastern expansion, but the agricultural problem will not be an issue, because the candidates have not got their focus on agriculture, already because of their communist heritage which focused on industry rather than on agriculture or the tertiary sector.
In case of the approaching expansion towards Eastern Europe the Union will have to resolve several problems, the most severe being without any doubt the financial one that will go along with the extension, estimated to be ?5 - ?6 billion annually, just for the technologically underdeveloped agriculture in the new member states.
The financial problem will also lead to a temporary discontent among the population of the existing members, since the financial load on the countries will cause budget cuts because the new members will undoubtedly belong to the payees rather than the payers. Especially the Mediterranean members, for instance Italy, Spain etc. fear cuts in their subsidies particularly the agricultural ones, and agriculture is already making up the biggest part of the EU′s budget.
Of course it is also to be questioned whether with the joining of economically weak countries the economies of the "richer" members are not weakened.
What should be taken into consideration as well is the impact the joining will have on the population of the candidates, especially considering the rights they will gain when they are citizens of the European community. They do then have the right to settle and work anywhere within the community, this could lead to a large amount of people pouring into the old member countries trying to seek work there and make their living. And since most of the European countries are already struggling with high unemployment the high rates could be pushed up further and the discontent among the population could worsen, especially against the background of Neo-Nazis in Germany and other countries such as Britain or Italy. Off course this would only be a temporary problem, which would solve itself over time as the new members develop economically, but still this could prove to be a major issue.
Of course their comes also a minor problem along with the expansion, this problem being even more languages than the twelve, already being used, in which EU communications would have to be carried out adding to the already huge administrative body of the European Union and also causing further costs of the EU.
But because the expansion represents a political necessity one should also take into account the positive aspects caused by such a historic event. With the expansion the continent would take a huge step towards the ethnic integration within Europe, different cultures would be facing each other and could also profit from each other. Also the global competitiveness of the EU against the USA and Asia would improve and another step towards global peace would be undertaken.
III. Changes in administration
It is obvious that an expansion potentially including ten countries would not be feasible without fundamental institutional reforms.
For instance with the existing structure of the Union which allocates most of the power to the European Council, where each member state has one vote, it would be imaginable that smaller members would have a majority over the larger members. Except for Poland, which is by population comparable to Spain and would consequently be a large member, all other candidates are relatively small in size an population.
Another point is that with more than twenty members the decision finding and making process needs to be completely reconsidered, so it represents the actual size of the member countries in terms of population rather than giving each member a veto and especially one single vote. The existing voting and weighting system is also already making the decision finding process a painfully and lengthy one, another ten different opinions added to this would make it virtually impossible to come to an agreement that at least partially satisfies all members and is therefore being supported and not vetoed against.
A changed "legislature" would also keep the democratic thought that the entire EU is based on alive and not vanish it like the existing system.
What should also be pointed out is the fact that an increase in members could lead to new coalitions within the Union and also increase competition among the individual countries. There are even critics that fear that an eastern expansion could lead to a shift in power towards the reunified Germany, since the potential new members are already heavily bound and leaning towards Germany.
What should also be considered is a change in European agricultural policy, which should actually be reformed already. The system of milk quotas, subsidies etc. which subsidises an over-production in many areas, just not to infuriate the farmers, because smaller farms would not be able to survive without the subsidies and the entire face of the European primary sector would change is completely outdated. This system could definitely no longer be kept up with even more farmers to support.
IV. Successful without absorbing the new members?
It is obvious that this question needs to be answered with a clear no. The existing members of the EU are already being absorbed by it and they have all chosen this faith. The goals of the European Union do state the loss of sovereignty in the areas of economic and currency politics, the latter one already realized, also in the political areas of social politics, education, research, consumer protection, health and also environmental issues. Now one could argue how many of these goals need to be realized in order for the EU to be successful, from the British point of view for example the cooperation in economic issues and the creation of the single market have already been enough, considering their opinion towards the Maastricht treaty.
If one would see it from the British point of view the EU could be successful without absorbing the new members, but since most other countries would like to see the above mentioned goals implied and would like to realize the dream of de Gaulle, Adenauer and others of "the United States of Europe", the new members would surrender a huge part of their sovereignty and consequently would be absorbed by the EU, especially considering that they will join in a couple of years at the earliest when European integration will hopefully have advanced beyond the point it is today.
Another point one could consider is what would happen if the European integration would further advance up to the point of the United States of Europe without any new countries joining. This would create another superpower alongside the USA and the then non-members would live in the shadow of the EU or whatever its name would be by that time and also be absorbed by the enormous power, in any terms, of their big neighbour just like the Caribbean, Canada and Mexico, even the entire Americas are by the USA. So the conclusion drawn by this could be that the central and eastern European countries would be better off in any case if they joined the EU even if they had to surrender much of their sovereignty.
Sources:
(1) http://www.europa.eu.int/ (March 17th, 2001)
(2) http://idw.tu-clausthal.de/public/zeige_pm.html?pmid=26445 (April 5th, 2001)
(3) Informationen zur politischen Bildung: Europäische Union (BpB, 1995)
(4) Microsoft Encarta 98
(5) Mittel- und Osteuropa auf dem Weg in die Europäische Union (Werner Weidenfeld, Verlag Bertelsmann Stiftung, 1996)
(6) http://www.e-politik.de/beitrag.cfm?Beitrag_ID=559 (April 1st, 2001)
关于做好１９９８年国家安居工程（经济适用房）统计工作的通知
建设部
关于做好1998年国家安居工程（经济适用房）统计工作的通知
建设部
各省、自治区、直辖市建委（建设厅）：
根据国务院领导关于实施今年国家安居工程（经济适用房）工作的指示精神，以及与国家计委、财政部、中国人民银行研究的意见，我部对原《国家安居工程住宅建设季报》（国统字（1997）年87号）中的统计指标做了适当调整。报表名称为《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅
建设投资情况》、《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅销售情况》，将原季度报表改为半年和年度报表。
国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅建设投资、销售情况半年及年度报表，仍由各省、自治区、直辖市建委（建设厅），按半年、年度将本地区（系统）国家安居工程实施城市和单位情况统计汇总后上报建设部房地产业司，同时抄送省房改领导小组和同级计委、财政、银行、统计部门。
希望你们明确专人负责，按附件中的“说明”和“指标解释”认真、准时填报。
附件：一、填报《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅建设投资情况》、《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅销售情况》的说明
二、《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅建设投资情况》、《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅销售情况》样式
附件一：填报《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅建设投资情况》、《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅销售情况》的说明
一、统计范围：
1、列入本年国家计委、中国人民银行下达的安居工程（经济适用房）投资规模和贷款计划的省、市及有关系统、实施单位。
2、被确定为国家安居工程（经济适用房）项目（在以下文字中，为了行文简便，不再加注“经济适用房”字样，内容相同）。
二、填报单位：
各省、自治区、直辖市建委（建设厅）、各有关系统，将各行政区域内各城市和系统内各单位实施国家安居工程进展情况汇总后，报建设部房地产业司。
三、填报要求：
1、按照国家下达建设规模、贷款计划的口径，填报国家安居工程的实施情况。
2、半年、年度报表各栏数据填报时间限定为，自当年1月1日起至填报半年、年度最后一天的累计数据。
3、报表上报时间分为半年和全年，半年、年度报表上报建设部房地产业司的时间为半年和年度后10日前。
4、填写报表字迹清楚，数据准确。
四、其他
报表联系人：宁绍志
电话：（010）68394080 68393134
传真：（010）68393134
《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅建设投资情况》《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅销售情况》指标解释
一、《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅建设投资情况》（安居工程1表）
1、“本年计划”栏
是指本年经国家计委、中国人民银行下达的国家安居工程建筑面积、贷款规模、自筹资金数额。有调整的，应填调整后的数字。
2、“建筑面积”栏
“施工面积”（5项）：是指报告期内施工的全部住宅房屋建筑面积，包括本期新开工的面积和上年开工垮入本期继续施工的房屋面积，以及上期已停建在本期恢复施工的房屋面积。本期竣工和本期施工后又停缓建的房屋面积仍包括在施工面积中。
“本年新开工”（6项）：是指在报告期内新开工建设的住宅房屋面积。不包括上期跨入报告期继续施工的房屋面积和上期停缓建而在本期恢复施工的房屋面积。房屋的开工应以房屋正式开始破土刨槽（地基处理或打永久桩）的日期为准。
“竣工面积”（7项）：是指报告期内住宅房屋建筑按照设计要求已全部完工，（包括本期新峻工面积和上年开工垮入本期竣工面积）达到住人和使用条件，经验收鉴定合格，可正式移交使用的各栋房屋建筑面积的总和。
3、“投资”栏
“到位资金”（8项）：按本年国家下达的投资计划，包括自筹资金、银行贷款已落实到城市及实施单位的数额。
“银行贷款”（10项）：指城市各专业银行按国家下达信贷计划，提供给实施国家安居工程的城市或单位，可供投入使用的资金数额。
“自筹资金”（9项）：指实施国家安居工程的城市或单位，按施工进度，将配套资金存入各地在专业银行设立的“国家安居工程城市配套资金”专户，可供投入使用的资金数额。
“完成投资”（11项）：从本年1月1日起至报告期末止，用自筹资金、银行贷款完成的全部用于土地开发工程和房屋建设工程的投资额。
4、“累计贷款”（14项）：指自国家安居工程实施以来，实施城市或单位获得国家下达贷款计划的累计数额。
5、“贷款余额”（15）项：指自国家安居工程实施以来，现仍在使用的贷款数额。
二《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅销售情况》（安居工程2表）
1、“销预售”栏
“销预售合计”（1、2项）：指报告期内正式交付给购房者的住宅房屋面积、套数和虽未竣工交付使用，但已签订预售合同的房屋面积、套数。
“待销售”（5、6项）：是指报告期末住宅房屋已竣工，但尚未销售的部分，包括上年度竣工和本期竣工可供出售的房屋面积、套数。
“平均售价”（7项）：指实施安居工程的城市或单位，销售住宅平均每平方米建筑面积的售价。
“销售额”（8项）：指报告期内销售住宅房屋面积的收入，包括实际销售、预售房屋面积全部收入。
“实际归还”（9、10项）：指报告期内，实际归还到期的自筹资金、银行贷款的数额。
“到期未归”（11、12项）：指报告期内，已到归还自筹资金、银行贷款的期限，还未归还的资金数额。
“呆滞贷款”（13项）：指依据财政部1993年2月1日发布的《金融保险企业财务制度》第41条规定，逾期（含展期后到期，即：贷款到期不能按期归还贷款本息的允许展期一次。）超过规定年限以上，仍未归还的贷款，及虽未逾期和逾期不满年限但生产经营已终止、项目已
停建的贷款（不含呆帐贷款）。
“呆帐贷款”（14项）：依据财政部（1988）财商字277号文件规定，列为呆帐的贷款。
附件二：《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅建设投资情况》、《国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅销售情况》样式
国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅建设投资情况（ 报）
表 号：安居工程1表
制表机关：建 设 部
批准机关：国家统计局
批准文号：国统字（1997）87号
单 位：万平方米、万元
填报单位： 填报时间：199 年1月—— 月
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
序｜ ｜ 本 年 计 划 ｜ 建 筑 面 积 ｜ 投 资 金 额 ｜ ｜
｜城 ｜－－－－－－－－－－－｜－－－－－－－－－｜－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－｜累计｜贷款
｜ 市 ｜建筑｜投资 ｜施工 ｜竣工｜到位 ｜完成 ｜ ｜
｜ 名 ｜ ｜ －－－－－－｜ －－－－｜ ｜ －－－－－－｜ －－－－－－｜ ｜
｜ 称 ｜ ｜ ｜银行｜自筹｜ ｜本年 ｜ ｜ ｜银行｜自筹｜ ｜银行｜自筹｜ ｜
号｜ ｜面积｜金额｜贷款｜资金｜面积｜新开工｜面积｜资金｜贷款｜资金｜投资｜贷款｜资金｜贷款｜余额
－｜－－－－－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－
甲｜ 1 ｜2 ｜3 ｜4 ｜5 ｜6 ｜7 ｜8 ｜9 ｜10｜11｜12｜13｜14｜15｜16
－｜－－－－－－｜－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
｜ 全 国 ｜说明：
｜一、××省 ｜ 1、3栏＝4栏＋5栏
｜ ××市 ｜ 2、4栏≤15栏
｜二、××系统｜ 3、6栏≥7栏
｜ ××单位｜ 4、9栏＝10栏＋11栏
｜ ｜ 5、10栏≤15栏
｜ ｜ 6、12栏＝13栏＋14栏
｜ ｜ 7、13栏≤15栏
｜ ｜ 8、15栏≥16栏
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
单位负责人： 填表人： 联系电话：
国家安居工程（经济适用房）住宅销售情况（ 报）
表 号：安居工程2表
制表机关：建 设 部
批准机关：国家统计局
批准文号：国统字（1997）87号
单 位：万平方米、套、
填报单位： 填报时间：199 年1月—— 月 元／平方米、万元
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
序｜ ｜ 销 预 售 ｜ 还 款 金 额
｜城 ｜－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－｜－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
｜ 市 ｜销预售 －－－－－－｜ 待销售 ｜平｜销售｜ 实际归还｜到期未还 ｜呆滞｜呆帐
｜ 名 ｜合 计 ｜ 预 售 ｜ ｜均｜ ｜－－－－－｜－－－－－｜ ｜
｜ 称 ｜－－－－－｜－－－－－｜－－－－－｜售｜ ｜银行｜自筹｜银行｜自筹｜ ｜
号｜ ｜面积｜套数｜面积｜套数｜面积｜套数｜价｜金额｜贷款｜资金｜贷款｜资金｜贷款｜贷款
－｜－－－－－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－｜－－
甲｜ 1 ｜2 ｜3 ｜4 ｜5 ｜6 ｜7 ｜8｜9 ｜10｜11｜12｜13｜14｜15
－｜－－－－－－｜－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
｜ 全 国 ｜说明：
｜一、××省 ｜ 1、2栏≥4栏
｜ ××市 ｜ 2、3栏≥5栏
｜二、××系统｜ 3、2、4、6栏计算单位：万平方米
｜ ××单位｜ 4、3、5、7栏计算单位：套
｜ ｜ 5、8栏计算单位：元／平方米
｜ ｜ 6、9、10、11、12、13、14、15栏计算单位：万元
－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
单位负责人： 填表人： 联系电话：
1998年4月10日
